Above Normal Rainfall Expected in June, Says IMD | Monsoon 2025 Forecast

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India is likely to receive above normal rainfall in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, offering a promising start to the southwest monsoon season critical for the country’s agriculture and water supply.

In its latest monthly outlook, the IMD forecasted that rainfall during June 2025 across most parts of the country is expected to be higher than the long-period average (LPA), a major shift from earlier concerns about potential delays or weakening of monsoon activity.

The forecast comes as a welcome development for farmers, state governments, and policymakers who rely heavily on the timely arrival and spread of the monsoon for crop planning and water management.

According to the IMD’s press release, the southwest monsoon, which typically hits the Kerala coast in early June, is likely to progress smoothly with stronger-than-usual rains across central, southern, and eastern India. Regions such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Telangana are likely to benefit the most from the predicted above-normal rainfall.

“The monsoon is expected to be vigorous this June. Our models show a 105-110% probability of rainfall compared to the long-period average,” a senior IMD official said. The agency attributes the positive forecast to a weakening El Niño effect and the onset of neutral to slightly La Niña-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

This early projection could be a significant boost to India’s agrarian economy. Over 50% of India’s net sown area depends on monsoon rains. Good rainfall in June can ensure timely sowing of major kharif crops like rice, pulses, and cotton.

Rural and agricultural experts say this could positively impact food inflation, rural consumption, and economic stability if the pattern continues through July and August.

Social media was abuzz with optimism following the IMD’s update. Several farmers’ associations and agri-policy think tanks welcomed the forecast, expressing hope for a strong agricultural season ahead.

“This is very encouraging news. A good June means early sowing and a chance at higher yields. Let’s hope the prediction holds,” said Rajesh Prasad, a farmer from Vidarbha in Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, weather bloggers and independent meteorologists called the forecast “crucial” and urged state administrations to prepare for both rain-fed agriculture and potential flooding in low-lying regions.

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