India to See Above-Normal Monsoon in 2025, IMD Forecasts 105% Rainfall

India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, the IMD said Tuesday, projecting 105% precipitation of the long-period average.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a robust monsoon this year, with rainfall expected to be 105% of the 50-year long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm. The forecast carries a model error margin of ±5%.

The monsoon, which spans June to September, is crucial for India’s agricultural output and rural economy. “Above-normal rainfall is expected to benefit most parts of the country, aiding farming and water storage,” the Ministry of Earth Sciences said in a statement.

However, some regions may receive below-normal rainfall, including parts of Ladakh, the Northeast, and Tamil Nadu.

The IMD highlighted that all major climate variables — El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — are currently neutral, a favourable condition for monsoon development.

“El Niño is tapering off and is not expected to impact rainfall significantly this year,” an IMD official said. “Meanwhile, neutral IOD conditions also contribute to a balanced monsoon outlook.”

El Niño, which causes warming of Pacific Ocean waters, typically suppresses monsoon activity in India. The IOD, another oceanic phenomenon, affects the intensity and distribution of rainfall across the subcontinent.

According to IMD standards, normal rainfall ranges from 96% to 104% of the LPA. Anything above 104% is classified as “above-normal.” This year’s 105% projection puts it firmly in the above-average bracket.

If realised, the prediction would offer much-needed relief following inconsistent rainfall patterns in recent years, particularly for rain-dependent farmers.

Nearly 60% of India’s net-sown area depends on monsoon rains, and the season contributes around 75% of the country’s annual rainfall. A good monsoon improves crop yields, reduces inflationary pressure, and boosts rural incomes.

A deficient monsoon, by contrast, can hurt food production, raise food prices, and trigger a cycle of economic stress, particularly in rural areas.

The IMD will issue its region-wise and month-wise forecasts in May, ahead of the monsoon’s likely onset around June 1.

With the current outlook showing promising signals, policymakers and the agricultural sector are expected to closely monitor the next phase of forecasts.